What could boost copper prices next year?
One factor that could lead to higher demand on the London copper market next year is the potential for the US to place tariffs on refined copper imports. The US commerce secretary is expected to make a recommendation on copper tariffs to the White House by June 2026 (and possibly sooner), Goldman Sachs Research’s base case is that a refined copper tariff of at least 25% will be implemented shortly after.
Flows of copper to the US may accelerate in this scenario as importers build up their stock before the tax comes into effect. “This will likely allow for a steady flow of metal into the US next year,” Dinsmore writes.
Goldman Sachs Research expects copper prices to decline slightly after the tariff is implemented, then resume its upward trajectory.
When will copper prices rise again?
Beyond 2026, Goldman Sachs Research is bullish on copper prices. The team expects demand for the metal to overtake supply from 2029 onwards, pushing prices higher—which is expected to incentivize the development of new copper supply (mainly by extending the life of mines, but also through more scrap use) and also to curtail demand.
Copper is often seen as an economic barometer—rising copper prices can indicate strong industrial demand and an accelerating global economy. In particular, Dinsmore writes, the metal is “a major beneficiary of investments in grid and power infrastructure globally, as AI and defence heighten the need for robust and secure energy networks.”
The grid and other power infrastructure are projected to drive more than 60% of copper demand growth in the team’s forecast until 2030—adding the equivalent of another US in copper demand.
Goldman Sachs Research expects China to remain the single largest driver, accounting for roughly half of this demand growth to 2030. But the US and Europe are increasing their share of copper demand growth.
“However, we expect this structural demand growth to be partly offset by switching from copper to aluminium” in other sectors such as consumer and industrials, Dinsmore adds. The ratio of copper prices to aluminium prices is set to reach a new high of 4.5:1 next year, from an average of 3.8:1 in recent years.
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the LME copper price to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035 (equivalent to $11,500 in 2025 US dollar terms).
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